All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (2024)

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook Summary

Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible over a small part of the upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana for a few more hours. Another area of significant severe weather potential will develop across west Texas this afternoon and evening.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 281959

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN TEXAS

### SUMMARY

Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible over a small part of the upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana for a few more hours. Another area of significant severe weather potential will develop across west Texas this afternoon and evening.

Texas

A severe MCS producing locally significant damaging gusts and large hail continues to move toward the upper TX Coast, and extends into southwest LA as of 20Z. The very moist and unstable air mass ahead of this activity will support damaging winds and periods of hail before moving offshore later this afternoon. Activity may also build southwestward toward the middle TX Coast.

For more information on this area see MCD 1049.

To the west, a large area of outflow has pushed across much of central Texas, but sufficient PWAT remains to support destabilization through the afternoon as heating occurs.

For more information across western TX, see MCDs 1046 1047 1048.

NE NM into southeast CO and western KS

The air mass continues to destabilize due to heating, with storms beginning to form from Raton to Pueblo. Easterly surface winds below weak westerlies will lengthen hodographs sufficiently to support cells capable of large hail. Storms should generally move very slowly south or east, producing locally severe gusts and large hail.

..Jewell.. 05/28/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/

Southeast TX/Western LA

A large nocturnal MCS that continues to affect east TX has dramatically changed the overall forecast of severe storms for later today. The leading edge of the MCS will affect southeast TX and southwest LA this afternoon, in a very moist and extremely unstable environment. Sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds and very large hail until early evening when the primary activity moves offshore.

West TX

The outflow boundary from the aforementioned MCS has surged westward across TX. A zone of strong heating and locally higher surface dewpoints on the north side of the boundary is expected to result in rapid thunderstorm development by late afternoon. These storms will be in a favorably sheared environment for intense supercells capable of all severe hazards. Activity will persist through much of the evening and spread into west-central TX.

WI/IL/IN

Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop ahead of a shortwave trough over southeast MN. A few of the storms may produce locally gusty winds and hail, but the overall severe threat is expected to remain marginal.

Outer Banks of NC

A weak surface boundary currently parallels the NC coast, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this boundary, with a risk of locally damaging winds or hail in the most intense storms.

ME

Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected to affect central and eastern ME as a shortwave trough moves across the area. Gusty winds and hail will be possible in the strongest cells.

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Outlook Summary

Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 281728

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley.

Synopsis

A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front.

To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS.

Central and northern High Plains

Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening.

From TX into the lower MS Valley

Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated.

To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks.

..Jewell.. 05/28/2024

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Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 280729

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO…WESTERN KANSAS…WESTERN OKLAHOMA…NORTHWESTERN TEXAS…NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail.

Synopsis

Large-scale mid-level troughing on the leading edge of stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific may linger across the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains through this period. However, it appears that the primary embedded perturbation will be forced to pivot north of the international border through the eastern Canadian Prairies, accompanied by continuing surface cyclogenesis centered over northern Saskatchewan. As this occurs, initially prominent downstream ridging will become suppressed southeastward across the Lake Superior and adjacent northwestern Ontario vicinity, and amplified troughing further downstream may slowly begin to shift across the Atlantic Seaboard.

In the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, broad weak mid-level troughing probably will linger across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity, downstream of suppressed subtropical ridging. At least a couple of weak waves are forecast to continue migrating around the periphery of this ridge, including one slowly across and east of the southern Rockies Thursday through Thursday night.

Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content appears likely to remain confined to the southern Great Plains into deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies through this period. It appears that warm elevated mixed-layer air will slowly advect to the east of the southern Rockies, and contribute to a strengthening lower/mid-level baroclinic zone roughly from the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into northwestern Texas by late Thursday afternoon. Along and to the southwest of this zone, steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg with daytime heating.

Central/Southern High Plains

Early period warm advection driven convection preceding the eastward advection of the elevated mixed-layer air could be a complicating factor with regard to destabilization and subsequent convective development through Thursday and Thursday night. However, the strengthening baroclinic zone may become the focus for organizing upscale growing convection, initially forming within the lee surface troughing and/or propagating off the higher terrain to the west. Given the potential instability, this could include the evolution of one or two prominent mesoscale convective vortices with strengthening mid-level rear inflow contributing to potential for sustained strong to severe surface gusts as the storms clusters and associated surface cold pools tend to propagate southeastward along the baroclinic zone.

It is possible that this may become particularly focused across the Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas by late Thursday evening, aided by forcing associated with the short wave impulse emerging from the Southwest. Severe wind probabilities might need to be increased across this region in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 05/28/2024

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280853 SPC AC 280853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week.

It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night.

..Kerr.. 05/28/2024

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280853 SPC AC 280853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week.

It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night.

..Kerr.. 05/28/2024

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280853 SPC AC 280853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week.

It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night.

..Kerr.. 05/28/2024

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280853 SPC AC 280853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week.

It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night.

..Kerr.. 05/28/2024

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280853 SPC AC 280853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week.

It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night.

..Kerr.. 05/28/2024

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, May 28

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Wednesday, May 29

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, May 30

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, May 31

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Saturday, June 1

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Sunday, June 2

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Monday, June 3

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Tuesday, June 4

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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